Leading property players and analysts suggest that the lacklustre housing market figures produced by the Halifax over the weekend owe more to high interest rates than election jitters.

Average house prices largely flat in June, down by just -0.2% on a monthly basis, while the annual rate of house price growth unchanged from the previous month at +1.6%. A typical UK home now costs £288,455 compared to £288,931 in May.

Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, says: “The election definitely added to nervousness in the property market but slower-than-expected falls in mortgage rates weighed more heavily. We are hearing in our offices and on the ground that most buyers and sellers put moves on hold so we expect the resilient recovering of activity to remain.  Looking forward, the rise in listings means prices will stay stable and the arrival of a new government will add certainty.”

Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, states: “Stubbornly-high mortgage rates and the uncertainty of a general election means the UK housing market has not experienced a particularly strong seasonal bounce this spring. We expect trading volumes to increase from the autumn as a rate cut becomes imminent and relative calm returns to Westminster. A Labour victory will have little bearing on what happens in the property market in 2024 and our forecast of an average 3% UK rise is unchanged.”

Fine and Country’s managing director Nicky Stevenson sees the Halifax data this way: “While the property market has had to contend with elevated interest rates and political uncertainty, it has held firm and is expected to see further buoyancy following the general election. While the reduction in mortgage debt costs has been modest so far, the combination of better interest rate forecasts and a brighter economic outlook has provided more room for house price growth in the second half of the year.”

Propertymark chief executive Nathan Emerson adds: “The announcement of a general election last month may have caused movement in the housing market to slow down, but now that we know we have a new government with an overall working majority, Propertymark remains optimistic that house prices will start to rise during the summer months, which is a naturally busy time for the housing market.

“Beforehand, it would be good for the new UK Government to clarify what its housing policies are going to be quickly, and a rumoured interest rate cut from the Bank of England hopefully becoming a reality in August would help trigger a substantial amount of confidence in the housing sector yet again.”

In addition to the headline UK-wide figures, Halifax has also released regional data.

Northern Ireland recorded the strongest property price growth of any nation or region in the UK, rising by +4.0% on an annual basis in June, up from +3.3% the previous month. The average price of a property in the country is now £192,457. 

In England, the steepest rate of house price inflation is found in the North West, up by +3.8% over the last year, now standing at £231,351.

House prices in Scotland also increased, with a typical property now costing £204,663, +1.6% more than the year before. In Wales, house prices grew annually by +2.7% to reach £220,197.

Eastern England was the only region or nation across the UK to register a decline in house prices over the last year, where they now average £328,747, down -0.9% in June on an annual basis.

London continues to have the most expensive property prices in the UK, now averaging £536,306, up (+0.9%) compared to last year.