The agents’ body Propertymark appears increasingly sceptical about the Labour government meeting its house building target. 

Yesterday Sir Kier Starmer listed what he called six “milestones”. 

One was the building of 1.5m homes in England and the fast-tracking planning decisions on at least 150 major infrastructure projects.

In response Nathan Emerson, chief executive of Propertymark comments, issued a statement saying: “Propertymark welcomes the Prime Minister’s focus on building new homes, but there are concerns that they may miss this target by 2029. 

“The UK Government would have to build the equivalent of over 1,000 new homes a day to hit this target, which is the size of a typical housing estate each and every day between here and 2029. 

“The UK Government must ensure that they have the workforce and skills in place to meet such an ambitious aim, because without a sufficient supply of homes, prices are unlikely to stabilise and people may find it a challenge to take their first step onto the housing ladder.”

Emerson ‘s scepticism is mirrored in a report by the Centre for Cities think tank.

This says proposed planning changes will not be enough to meet the 1.5m target.

It continues that, if private development rose to the same level as its strongest ever period of performance under the current planning system, it would still fall 388,000 homes short of delivering the Government’s target by 2029 – a shortfall that is unlikely to be bridged in full by public sector housebuilding within the next five years.

The under-delivery of new housing following the latest planning reforms is forecast to be largest in big cities. Centre for Cities estimates that over four years private development would fall 196,000 new homes short in Greater London – 60% below the area’s target. In all other big cities, it would come to 96,000 below target.

Using 80 years of data, the analysis shows how housebuilding is constrained by the discretionary planning system in cities and by the green belt – explicitly established to block suburban development.

If the private housebuilding sector is to help the country meet its target, Centre for Cities argues that the Government is faced with a choice either to scrap the green belt completely or remove the discretionary element of the planning system.

Achieving historic high levels of housebuilding in cities also requires greater public sector intervention to enable brownfield development and encourage densification, and a substantial increase in grant for public housebuilding.

Centre for Cities’ projections are based on analysis of a newly-digitised dataset showing the private and public sector housebuilding rates for all local areas in England since 1946.

It found that almost every part of the country needs to build more private homes than the current system has delivered in 80 years in order to meet its new housing target.