Propertymark is telling Chancellor Rachel Reeves not to do more to hamper the housing market.
Nathan Emerson, chief executive, says: “With increasing speculation about potential tax rises, it is crucial that careful consideration is given to avoid hampering growth within the housing market, as it is a central engine of the economy.
“It is encouraging to hear the Chancellor state that her Budget is aimed at boosting productivity. Any measures designed to ease the cost of living and positively impact the housing market would be very welcome news for consumers.
“However, with continued uncertainty ahead of the Budget regarding possible changes to Stamp Duty and National Insurance, both of which could directly affect landlords, these measures will be closely scrutinised. The Chancellor must ensure a careful balance is struck to promote future investment and enhance confidence in the sector, especially at a time when governments across the UK are pursuing ambitious housing targets.”
Analysts have been unanimous that Reeves’ unexpected press statement gave the game away that she was planning substantial tax rises.
Nigel Green, chief executive of deVere, says her silence on specific tax pledges “isn’t hesitation, it’s intent.”
“Governments test language carefully before they act. When ministers refuse to repeat categorical assurances, it’s deliberate,” he says. “This is choreography. The message, we believe, is pretty clear: tax rises are coming. Get ready.”
Reeves pointedly declined to restate Labour’s 2024 manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, national insurance, or VAT, saying only that she would “set out the individual policies at the Budget.”
She told the public that “pressures on the public finances” must be faced and that “the productivity performance we inherited is weaker than previously thought.”
“Her speech was as much about managing expectations as setting direction,” says Green.
“It was timed before markets opened to reassure investors about fiscal discipline while preparing taxpayers for what’s next.”
The latest official figures show UK government borrowing reached £20.2 billion in September, the highest for that month in five years, bringing total borrowing for the first half of the fiscal year close to £100 billion—well above forecasts. Analysts estimate a £30 billion fiscal gap ahead of the November 26 Budget.
“The arithmetic is brutal,” he says. “Debt servicing costs remain elevated, productivity has been downgraded, and growth is stagnant. Something has to give, and that something is tax policy.”
He warns that anyone with exposure to UK assets should now assume that changes to capital gains tax, dividend allowances, inheritance thresholds, and pension reliefs are probable, not possible.
Meanwhile Charlotte Kennedy, Chartered Financial Planner at Rathbones, adds: “The Chancellor’s pre-Budget speech effectively lays the groundwork for tax rises, seemingly intended to soften the blow at the end of the long run-up to the Budget.
“Over the past few weeks, client concerns have centred on pensions, income tax and inheritance tax, as it has become increasingly clear that trimming around the edges won’t be enough to address the multi-billion-pound shortfall in public finances – a gap that has only widened during the extended lead-up to the Budget.”
