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Bank of England base rate to go up again - gloomy forecast by experts

Financial analysts are unanimously warning that Bank of England base rate will rise yet again tomorrow.

If they are correct this will be the 12th consecutive BoE meeting in a row that the base rate has risen as the Bank battles stubbornly high inflation.

Last month, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee voted by a 7-2 majority to raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 4.25 per cent, taking the rate to its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.


Most experts agree a hike by the MPC to 4.5 per cent tomorrow - and some warn that this may not be the final increase.

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, says: “It’s too soon for the MPC to declare victory – we now expect one final 25bp hike at next month’s meeting.”

Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at the bank AJ Bell, adds: “The UK’s headline inflation rate is running around twice that in the US, so it’s easy to see why we might have to swallow another few doses of monetary medicine.

“Food and energy prices are the main culprits in producing unavoidable inflationary pressure on households and there is growing disquiet about elevated food inflation, even in the face of falling wholesale prices.”

Matthew Ryan of global financial services firm Ebury, comments: “On the one hand, sticky inflation raises the possibility that the UK economy could tip into a technical recession in 2023.

"On the other, it more or less guarantees that the Bank of England still has a little way to go in raising interest rates.

"We see another 25bp hike at the May MPC meeting as a foregone conclusion, and we wouldn't be at all surprised to see another couple more hikes beyond.”

Sky's economics and data editor Ed Conway added: "Less than a month ago investors were betting the Bank of England interest rates would peak at 4.5 per cent or even 4.25 per cent.

"Now they're betting they'll hit 5.0 per cent this year. The highest projected rate since the mini-budget fallout. Another consequence of unexpectedly high and stubborn inflation."

  • Billy the Fish

    This period of inflation was caused by Govt giving away £600bill to businesses owners during Covid whereas it should have been given to employees who would in turn have spent it mainly within the UK economy.
    This is Govt caused, quite similar to housing issues really.


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