In 2024, the months leading up to the Autumn Budget saw an 18.1% rise in house purchases, according to Compare My Move data. But after the Budget was announced, activity dropped sharply, with November seeing a 10% fall in home buyers.
This year has taken a different direction. Instead of the usual pre-Budget uplift, demand has dropped, with house purchases down 6.2% compared with the same period last year. This dip comes despite better bank rates for buyers and increased interest in purchasing, suggesting many people are simply waiting to see what the Budget brings.
| Year | Month-on-Month Change in Purchases before the Budget | MoM Change in Sales before the Budget |
| 2024 | +18.1% | +16.5% |
| 2025 | -6.2% | -8.5% |
Simon Cairnes, property journalist and editor at Buy Associationcomments that “Historically, whenever there’s Budget uncertainty, the market tends to pause as buyers and sellers wait to see what the Chancellor delivers.” and this caution is justified as last years budget saw a majority of people put at a disadvantage when buying a house.
Dave Sayce, managing director of Compare My Move, adds: “Last year’s Budget confirmed that the temporary stamp duty cuts for both home movers and first-time buyers would end on 31 March 2025. From April, thresholds fell back to their previous levels, meaning many buyers now pay more stamp duty and it is harder for some first-time buyers to get onto the property ladder. It also increased the Stamp Duty Land Tax on second homes by 2%, hitting landlords and second property buyers. Looking back at those changes, it is completely understandable that these groups are worried about this year’s Budget and reluctant to buy beforehand.”
So who’s at risk in 2025?
Looking forward to Wednesday’s budget, Dave Sayce and Simon Cairnes has given insight into who’s at risk, and how they should be prepared.
Homeowners in higher council tax bands (F–H)
Why they’re at risk: Cairnes comments that Rachel Reeves is “examining the possibility of increasing taxes and revaluing properties in the top three bands… F, G and H (approx. 300,000 properties),” where “taxes for house owners in those bands could potentially be doubled.”
How to prepare: Dave Sayce comments, “Factor in the risk of higher annual bills before moving or remortgaging, review household budgets, use online calculators and consider whether now is the time to downsize or relocate or if you’d be better to wait.”
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Landlords and would-be investors
Why they’re at risk: “The other measure that could instantly move the dial is anything impacting landlords.” Says Cairnes, “If the Chancellor tightens rules or increases liabilities, we could see landlords selling up quickly, or buyers rushing to complete purchases through company structures to protect themselves.”
How to prepare: Sayce suggests that “Landlords should stress-test their portfolio for higher costs, for example, potential changes to National Insurance for landlords, to see how their investments would fare and be ready to restructure or sell slower-performing properties.”
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Buyers at the top of the market
Why they’re at risk: “The buyers taking biggest risks right now are those at the top of the market or in areas likely to be the hardest hit by new taxation,” especially where “discounts of 5–10% are already common” and further tax changes are on the table.
How to prepare: Sayce suggests that “High-end buyers should model different tax scenarios, negotiate harder on price, budget a ‘worst case scenario’ and be certain they would still be comfortable owning the property if their ongoing tax bill rises after completion.”
